NoCategoryRiskDescriptionRisk TriggersMitigation StrategiesLikelihood
Coordination Failure

Diversion from higher- impact roles

People diverted from 80K roles: - Longtermist roles - UK/US focused People diverted from EA org roles in general

There is a drop in competition for EA jobs

Establish whether people are good fits before encouraging other strategies. Ensure high fidelity messaging, spend time determining strategy on this topic.

Possible. However, many non-80K paths are not specified, so we would have to be doing worse than no research, which is unlikely.

Coordination Failure

Dilution of rigour of EA career advice

Lowering standards of rigour of EA-recommended paths outside US/UK

Ineffective Orgs endorsed

1-1 calls Establishing minimum thresholds for research conducted, encourage high levels of transparency Focus more on career capital building vs direct impact.

Somewhat possible. LCAN will not have full control over this, organisers are already doing such research.

Harm to community building

Diverting groups from higher impact activities

Less focus on other early-stage community building activities e.g. developing social connections, helping people with small/medium actions, transmitting high-quality EA content

Organisers aren’t having as much impact as they used to

1-1 calls  Ensure organisers have a good grasp of national-level strategy, members, etc. and are doing activities that make sense. Connect them to more estalished organisers & CEA

Somewhat Possible.

Harm to community building

Diverting groups from higher impact activities

Focusing on the wrong career-focused activities

Providing information instead of prescribing activities.

Unlikely. The value of different career activities has not been thoroughly studied, and we have done research which will make decisions based on data.

Harm to community building

This project prioritizes the wrong “Tier” of member

Focus too much on some people (e.g. more promsiing or less promising)

Community health metrics

1-1 calls Improve general knowledge on filtering.  Do checks periodically between organizers  Providing information instead of prescribing activities.

Unlikely to result from LCAN activities. This is an ongoing issue for many groups

Harm to community building

Value Drift and Movement Fragmentation

Career efforts are diverted from the hubs

A reduction in average years of engagement

Ensuring connections between localities and the core EAs via EAGx and EAGs.  Regional and national groups can help support local groups and connect them to others.

Unlikely to result from LCAN activities.

Harm to other cause areas (non-meta)

Reputation risks, info-hazards, putting wrong people in sensitive positions

Low-quality advice/execution if organisers make decisions too hastily or do not invest enough time into research, or encourage the wrong people into roles

Reputation risks e.g. EA in the policy space Info-hazards e.g. AI governance roles - people talking about x-risks

1-1 Calls Checks with EA leaders and relevant cause-area experts Don’t jump to associate someone with EA explicitly Encourage group organisers to track people in these fields in the long-term Suggest low-risk ways for people to test their fit (skills, personal) for a career path rather than going directly into a career

Possible. Those working in longtermist causes need to be careful.